🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."