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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd