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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the current field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime strugglers rising together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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